by Dietrich Schmitz
Oh the proclamations continue to amplify and the pontificators pontificate taking information repeating it, sometimes distorting it along the way and it takes on a life all its own.
Lets examine the Post-PC era. Would that suggest that at some point there will cease to exist a demand for Desktop PCs? Will the PC go the way of the VHS Video Player, LP records and Cassette Players for example? If so, I refuse to believe it. And I don't care if Steve Jobs (rest in peace) predicted it.
The fact is, nothing is constant. Everything is in a state of eternal change. You see, every business has its ups and downs. Every economy too undergoes fluctuations and new events and technologies lead to growth spurts resulting in stronger demand for production. The key here is that it is cyclical in nature.
Reading in an October 30, 2012 report for example from readwrite.com:
As if in a display of multiple-personality disorder, IDC recants its previous position according to this InformationWeek report on March 5, 2013:
Yet, reading just a paragraph further in the very same story reveals:
What can be believed? As for myself, I don't see tablets replacing Desktop systems in the Enterprise or SMBs. They simply can't perform production tasks as well and IT Managers aren't going to risk a wholesale shift to tablets regardless of how much the media might say the PC is dead.
You can be sure that Lenovo, HP, Dell will continue to build PCs for a long long time.
Make peace with that. The PC is here to stay.
Oh. By the way, I just checked my Driver's License and, can confirm, I wasn't born yesterday. ;)
-- Dietrich
Lets examine the Post-PC era. Would that suggest that at some point there will cease to exist a demand for Desktop PCs? Will the PC go the way of the VHS Video Player, LP records and Cassette Players for example? If so, I refuse to believe it. And I don't care if Steve Jobs (rest in peace) predicted it.
The fact is, nothing is constant. Everything is in a state of eternal change. You see, every business has its ups and downs. Every economy too undergoes fluctuations and new events and technologies lead to growth spurts resulting in stronger demand for production. The key here is that it is cyclical in nature.
Reading in an October 30, 2012 report for example from readwrite.com:
If this is the dawn of the “post-PC era,” then the economy never got the memo. While the tablet segment is finally growing (thank you, Apple), the five-times-larger PC segment is actually growing faster in terms of units, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future....
...Industry analysis firm IDC predicts worldwide growth in tablet shipments from 2013 to 2016 to be about 32 million units per year. In the same period, the rate of PC shipment growth will be about 38 million units per year.
As if in a display of multiple-personality disorder, IDC recants its previous position according to this InformationWeek report on March 5, 2013:
The global PC market will shrink for the second consecutive year, IDC said on Monday. The research firm had previously predicted that PCs would achieve modest growth in 2013, but reversed its forecast due to slowing momentum in emerging markets, limited growth potential in mature segments and consumer indifference to new and expensive hardware.
Yet, reading just a paragraph further in the very same story reveals:
In the meantime, the firm's analysts expect PC shipments to decline by 1.3% over the rest of this year, dropping from 2012's 350.4 million, which itself was a 3.7% setback, to 345.8 million. IDC anticipates that desktops will suffer the biggest slowdown with not only a 4.2% downtick this year but also continued, albeit slower, declines through at least 2017. The outlook is somewhat rosier for portable PCs; IDC projects shipments for these products will increase almost 1% in 2013, and that emerging markets will push this segment to 241 million units by 2017, a 19.3% increase from 2012.So, you see, this business of sales forecasting, predicting the future if you will, is rather tricky and, often, analysts just get it wrong, correct themselves, and then go further by hedging in the opposite direction. This IDC analyst predicts PC sales will remain strong in 2013 (a bit negative year over year), but, years going forward through 2017, portable PC sales will see positive growth by as much as 19%
What can be believed? As for myself, I don't see tablets replacing Desktop systems in the Enterprise or SMBs. They simply can't perform production tasks as well and IT Managers aren't going to risk a wholesale shift to tablets regardless of how much the media might say the PC is dead.
You can be sure that Lenovo, HP, Dell will continue to build PCs for a long long time.
Make peace with that. The PC is here to stay.
Oh. By the way, I just checked my Driver's License and, can confirm, I wasn't born yesterday. ;)
-- Dietrich
