Does it really matter?

by Daniel Sandman

I have lately contemplated over Linux and it's market share on desktop. We have seen a little upswing the last year and depending who you ask it is somewhere between 1.6-3 percent of all desktop computers. It's a small percentage but what people tend to forget is that it is a HUGE number. There are around 2 billion desktop computers running in the world today. The estimation is hard to do but it's the general number I tend to see on this. So that means it would be roughly 30-60 million desktop computers running with Linux in today's world. Not a small number. Even if you only took a third of that number it would still be 10 million computers which are actively being used. That is a lot of people.

I mean how many people do we need to have an active ecosystem? I have no clue, but would guess a couple of thousand is enough. That means a couple of thousands technical users. Those who can develop and maintain. It's a non-issue for desktop Linux currently. It's always nice to have a couple of more developers but a general feel is that we are good. So I have no fear to be honest. As long as we grow I am good. It doesn't need to jump several percentages to make me happy. Just a steady slow grow is enough and that is how it looks today. For me it's more important the openness is preserved than a market majority.

Sure I am happy to see Valve and gang joining the club. I mean it is good to have the choice. It also improves the support for drivers and hardware which could be better on Linux. I am not complaining though. My hardware on my machines has worked more or less flawlessly since 2008 or so.

So does it really matter?

Yes, I think so. The state of Linux today are big changes. We are watching Linux being commercialized at a rate never seen before. Android and ChromeOS have been good for Linux but Google are no RedHat. Sure RedHat do have some proprietary solutions but mainly aimed at enterprise. With Google we get core functionality like the distribution of software closed off. That is an essential difference from what we are used to. We are seeing Canonical taking steps toward a similar business model and others are surely thinking of it too. Heck even Apple have a similar solution with some parts open but others not. Is this the future of open source? Is the future a mix of open and close?

Maybe. I hope it is not but money talk and Linux is dependant on businesses donating developers to make code. In a perfect world this would not be needed but the world today is anything but perfect. Just because we need some commercialization does not mean I am happy about Google and Canonical. I wish they could have taken a more similar approach to RedHat and SUSE which base their revenue on support. If so it would have meant they might have not felt the need to use CLA and closed source on core functionality. So my main concern today lay in the commercialization of Linux and what that might bring us tomorrow. Not so much in the actual percentage of market share.

It could be fine but it could also mean that openness proves to be a failure. I hope on the former. We have to stay vigilant and especially on software with core functionality that is not open and demand opening them up. The danger lay in dependence on commercial software with core functionality. We as a community can not allow such things to happen. If we do it would mean the end of openness and the end of Linux as we know it.

So to me supporting Systemd, Wayland and Bodega are important for the future of Linux.

Related articles

• Has Ubuntu lost it?
• Red Hat CEO: Go Ahead, Copy Our Software
• SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop: Better Than Red Hat?

Read More

The Chromebook Juggernaut

by Dietrich Schmitz

I have to laugh.  While traditional PC sales are flagging, quite the opposite is happening to sub-$300 Notebook sales, which are growing by leaps and bounds for Google Chromebook.

Is it any wonder -- they keep opening new sales channels.

Market research done by the NPD group confirms that the Chromebook is the fastest growing segment for devices priced under $300.

Chromebooks according to NPD have garnered 20 to 25 percent of the sub-$300 Laptop U.S. market during the last eight months.

And with their newest agreements with U.S. national chain stores Walmart and Staples in place, it should be a banner year for Chromebook sales for the 'back to school' and Holiday seasons.  (Image credit: Wikipedia.org)

This Chromebook is a Juggernaut and cannot be stopped.

Mwuahahahahahah  (ah hem.  sorry.)

-- Dietrich

Related articles

• Chromebooks exploding in down PC market, now up to a quarter of all laptops sold for under $300
• Google Chromebook Under $300 Defies PC Market With Growth
• No doubt about it, Chromebooks are here to stay
• Three reasons you may want to buy a Google Chromebook laptop

Read More

Will Google Launch a PC Operating System?

by Dietrich Schmitz

Don't kid yourself.

If you really think about it, Google can do most anything they want, right?

After all, they are flush with cash to invest and they have shown themselves to be shrewd investors, taking Android as just one example.  That yielded a huge return on investment.

But looking at things from another perspective, Google has risen to the challenge and shown themselves to be as good as Microsoft in pure software innovation.

Google Apps for Business?  Google Apps Engine?  ChromeOS?

And they've shown themselves quite capable of putting together solid OEM agreements and the OEMs are as happy as pigs in $hit--that includes both Android and ChromeOS.

Add to that the newest enhancements put into the Linux kernel which make ChromeOS all the more compatible with internal and external hardware and you see where this is going.

And the most recent announcement for ChromeOS Packaged Apps has just surfaced in May.

It may very well be that Google have designs on packaging up ChromeOS for general retail sale.

Is that so far-fetched an idea?  Not really.  Allow me to explain.

When you come right down to it, there may be millions of users now who understand the perceived risks of using legacy (x86) Windows to do anything on the Internet.  The reputation of Microsoft Windows and its woeful lack of security are sounding like a bell (Stuxnet, spambots, trojans, etc.) and the strata of individuals who are 'experienced' with several years of using Windows surely have an inkling that there might be a problem.

This year's Pwn2Own 2013 showed just how easy it was for hackers to compromise Windows legacy (x86).

And conversely, at the same convention in another hall, the Pwnium 2013 was held with zero contestants being able to fully compromise ChromeOS.  (There was a partially successful attack which was given credit by Google, but not an exploit which took administrative control of the operating system.)

So we have here one operating system, Windows, albeit popular but carries with its use an attendant  high risk of infection and the other, ChromeOS, is for all intents and purposes a veritable impenetrable security fortress.

Add in the ability to install packaged apps, a new forked WebKit, called Blink, and the just announced ability of ChromeOS to edit native Microsoft Office Word and Excel documents (QuickOffice required and DevChannel only).

What do you think would happen if suddenly one day there was an announcement for ChromeOS retail, an ISO download away and with nice point of sale at Walmart, Best Buy, Staples?

I think it would sell like hot cakes.  (Cough) Hit? ;)

-- Dietrich

Related articles

• The Puzzling Case of Google Chromebook Packaged Apps
• Pixels rejoice: native Microsoft Word and Excel file editing arrive on Chrome OS
• Google's future Office killer now available in Chrome OS dev channel
• How To Try Google Chrome OS On Your PC
• So Long Google Reader. Hello Feedly, InoReader

Read More

The Puzzling Case of Google Chromebook Packaged Apps

by Dietrich Schmitz

Ah, Google Chrome packaged applications.  I see.  What?!

So maybe you are as confused as I am.  Apparently, Google is, once again, on the move not sitting still, not complacent, innovating as they are wont to do and on Internet Time.

That means, a frenetic pace, which hasn't let up continues with more announcements that makes one's head spin.

The most recent is packages.  Now, you are wondering, for what are packages needed?

After all, the Chromebook's raison d'etre has been that you don't need to install any software right?

Wrong.  That appears to be changing.  And, looking just this past weekend at a Walmart $199 Acer C710 in-store display, I thought, what is a Chromebook with 1TB of disk space going to be used for?

Acer C710 Chromebook sold in U.S. Walmart stores

[Update: It was pointed out on reddit that if one drills down on the website SKU shown above and behind in 'specifications', it shows 16GB SSD; still there are other SKUs being sold with large local hard drives, so the question stands: why a large HDD?]

It also includes a blue-ray drive which will keep the movie industry happy.

But, I digress.  Packages.  What are they all about?  Well, it seems that Google Chrome is now offering packaged Apps for ChromeOS.  At least they're available to those using the developer channel for now.  And only show if you use Windows or Chromebook.  That explains me not noticing.  I usually skim through the Chrome Store once a week with my drag-net looking for trends.  The announcement came quietly.  I missed it.  I suppose because there have been so many from Google, it becomes part of the ambient Internet background noise level.

I really don't know what this portends for the future of Chromebook.  I suppose that the proof is in the pudding and those packaged Apps have yet to materialize in any major way.

Let's call it an escape hatch for Google.  They won't or can't (or both) encrypt your data on Google Drive, but you sure can keep your data safe on a local drive--far better than in the Cloud (cough NSA).  That might allay potential buyer concerns.  Local storage good.  Cloud bad.

And back to school is only a blink of an eye away in August, so, there is a yet unrealized explosion of sales to be exploited from the newest Walmart and Staples distribution channels.

The potential for sales is huge at Walmart and of course Google knows that.  And, the potential for students to adopt Chromebook is also good, but is it good enough for many who still are wanting to install apps locally?  That is Google's hedge with packages.  Really, if Google made up their mind, they could simply package ChromeOS as a free-standing Linux Distribution.  They just have to decide to do it.  For now, you get ChromeOS only on Chromebook.

Packages is not going to fly if there aren't Apps--good ones.  That will tell the tale in the long run.

-- Dietrich

Related articles

• Samsung Chromebook First Impressions
• Acer Bringing C7 Chromebook To Walmart Shelves For $199
• Google Chromebooks landing in Walmart and Staples
• Living with Chromebook: Can you use it to actually get work done?
• Google adds more retailers for Chromebook

Read More

Google Chromebook Advances as Linux on the Desktop Spins its Wheels

by Dietrich Schmitz

It's the same situation only a different day.  Watching Distrowatch.com may be a non-scientific way to get the pulse on those Linux Distributions which are trending up or down, but it's the only method we have for gauging what is happening, unless we can measure sales reported by a commercial Distro. (Image credit: rapgenius.com)

Ubuntu, ChromeOS, and SuSE, are the only commercial Distros which are marketing Linux Desktop systems.

With the exception of Chromebook, none is doing measurably well in the U.S. market.  Neither Canonical nor SuSE Gmbh furnish sales data that can be relied upon.  Google's Chromebook on the other hand is the only real Desktop system with sales now coming from multiple OEMs and, in addtion to the U.S., is expanding into six new markets.

The developer community hasn't taken an interest in enhancing Chromium OS, the source code of which is freely downloadable.  I would have thought by now, someone would have taken the 'best parts' of Chromium OS and forked a new Distro using Google's own Aura Window Manager.

Still, Chromebook sells because, well, it is truly simple and easy to use.  And, who cares what is under the hood?  It just works.  The OEMs are quite happy to sell such devices, especially now with the newest Linux Kernel 3.9 providing full device driver support for internal/external Chromebook devices.  Only, it's the same process that Microsoft has used to work closely with OEMs on hardware certification that has made Windows historically a success.

However nice open source is, there is at present a lack of cohesion and sufficient direction.  There are many divergent conflicts of interest which pull at the fabric of the Linux ecosystem each driving its own agenda resulting in confusion.

Canonical chose to avoid upstream conflicts of interest by creating their own graphical user interface, Unity.  They have spawned a new Ubuntu Touch software branch for touch-driven devices, e.g., tablets and smartphones.  And surprisingly, Canonical sponsored development of Wayland as a replacement for X.org only to take the first iteration, version 1, and fork it to their own branch called Mir.

It seems that Canonical are once again exercising control and not chancing any upstream hindrances with work being done on Wayland, I can only surmise.  Given Canonical is privately held, there is no way to determine what their sales have been and while Dell do sell the Sputnik Laptop, this is an exotic device priced sufficiently high to yield low and narrow sales to Developers.  There simply aren't enough SKUs devoted to Ubuntu-based Desktop systems in the U.S.

SuSE Gmbh has a financial relationship with Microsoft which extends and renews the interoperability agreement negotiated by Novell's Ron Hovsepian and Microsoft's Steve Ballmer in 2006.  The most recent renewal was made in July of 2011 and SuSE received a $100 million cash infusion.  The renewal has a four-year term in which Microsoft's 'voucher system' allows sales of Windows system infrastructure to piggyback on the sales of SuSE systems.  But, that is largely for server-side business with SuSE Linux Enterprise Server and Desktop sales are negligible.

So, it's remarkable to note that however many factions and different interests there are in the Linux Desktop ecosystem, Linux on the Desktop continues to spin its wheels whilst Google Chromebook gets traction and continues to grow market share.

-- Dietrich

Related articles

• Fedora Got Game: Leading Edge Technology, Stability and Standards
• Confused by FuSE
• Chromebook: To Hell With the Linux Desktop--Pre-Installation is Key.
• The Linux Inside Stigma
• The Linux Desktop Mess

Read More

Chromebook: To Hell With the Linux Desktop--Pre-Installation is Key.

by Dietrich Schmitz

I keep seeing snipes here and there about Google's Chromebook.

People waging criticism just don't seem to grasp what is happening.  Let me clarify a few points which should help you to better understand why we need to put our full support behind the Chromebook.

Nobody Wants to Install an Operating System

When you get right down to it, nobody cares about Operating Systems.  Nobody wants to install an Operating System, with minor exceptions including your average 'Gear Head' (me) who likes to get grease under his finger nails and tinker with all manner of different technologies.  I am in the minority.

So, when you walk by that Chromebook at Best Buy, realize that it's in the brick and mortar setting because it comes pre-installed.  That is a must for any operating system to become wildly popular.  You can't succeed otherwise.  It doesn't matter which GUI you like.  Not pre-installed?   You are losing in the bigger game played by Microsoft and Apple.

Software Certification

While people continue to scoff and chide Chromebooks, they overlook that Google have succeeded in fine tuning their operating system and the software certification which has been done with OEMs assures that the units they sell will run reliably, trouble-free.  This is so important because it reduces the risk taken to capitalize and ramp up to production a given product SKU.  OEMs all know that the rate of return will be reduced accordingly because of the Internet Appliance like reliability of Chromebooks.

Linux Kernel Device Driver Support

Most recently, Linux kernel 3.9 was released and it adds full support for ChromeOS internal and external devices.  Also, ChromeOS not only runs on Intel/AMD processors, but on ARM devices as well, with the same 100% level of kernel support including device drivers and KVM virtualization.  This is a big move towards a higher level of compatibility between the Linux kernel and ChromeOS and makes OEMs all the more willing to build computers they know will run with a high degree of reliability.

Brand Image, Internet Appliance, Ease of Use

I've written about Google's approach to marketing the Chromebook in The Linux Inside Stigma.
You can say what you will about that, but I think it was clever and wise that they branded the product in such a way as to avoid mentioning 'Linux' entirely.  The product is packaged accordingly as an Internet Appliance 'turn-key' system.  It starts up in a matter of seconds with an internal SSD drive (3 seconds approximately) and users will find the Chrome Aura Window Manager a familiar user experience as it presents itself nearly the same way that the popular Google Chrome browser interface does.  It's intuitive, easy to understand and use.  That's the Chromebook brand image.  Is it any surprise then that Linus Torvalds has given the Chromebook his enthusiastic endorsement?

Chromebook's word of mouth reputation continues to spread fast, with sales now having expanded into six new markets as demand continues to grow.

Low-Cost

A marketing plan also should include targeted demographics.  Shooting for a 'mass market', Google's partnering OEMs have succeeded in keeping the design cost low and are selling SKUs in the $200 to $500 U.S. price range.  One of the more aggressive OEMs, Acer introduced during the 2012 Holiday season their Acer Chrombook C7 which turned into a best seller at $199.  That is simply remarkable.

Conclusion

Putting it all together, Pwnium 2013 proved that Chromebooks are not only reliable, they are, by far, the safest commercially-sold Internet devices.  This should give prospective buyers the peace of mind they need to venture on the Internet without risk and the low cost makes these devices most affordable and an attractive option.

-- Dietrich

Related articles

• Schmidt does not rule out Android and Chrome OS merger
• Chrome Browser Now Directly Opens Microsoft Office Documents [OStatic]
• Living with Chromebook: Can you use it to actually get work done?
• New Chromebooks coming this year from Asus and Acer, report suggests

Read More

The Linux Inside Stigma

by Dietrich Schmitz

It's remarkable how Google doesn't mention the word Linux anywhere in their marketing of the Google Chromebook.

I mean, it's running the Linux Kernel, so shouldn't it be Google Linux instead of ChromeOS?

Why did Google carefully avoid references to Linux?

It's all a very carefully crafted, well executed plan of elegant branding and image making.

They have shown themselves to be very adept and facile at understanding buyer mindsets and recognize there is a viable 'mass market' which has a huge potential to buy.

The profile of this user is that of someone who really doesn't care anything about the technical underpinnings of a device.  They are not sophisticated technophiles by any means.  They have a set number of things which they wish to do--recreational surfing, banking, email, an occasional letter, not complicated.  They have financial constraints and can't spend a lot on said device (more than $500 for the average Laptop).

Access to the Internet is becoming a right and the cost of computers has traditionally put them out of reach by many.

The timing of the Acer C7 Chromebook could not have been better.  Overall sales during the 2012 Holidays were robust and Amazon's best selling Laptop was the Samsung Chromebook.   With this device priced at $200, it puts the Internet and computing within reach of the masses.  It levels the playing field.

The Chromebook is attractive for many reasons.  It's inexpensive, it has instant on (ok, 8 seconds), it has free applications built in, integration with Google Drive, it is very secure (Pwnium 2013 showed that), and easy to use.  Moreover, it is hard to break.  It is fair to say that the Chromebook has become a veritable Internet Appliance.

All of these attributes combine to make this a quite attractive option when shopping for a computer.  It is also quite attractive to OEMs who see that selling Chromebooks will require little post-sale support and returns will be low.  Turn on, use.  It does it well.

Google didn't mention Linux because they know it will scare buyers away.

That's unfortunate, but true.  And we need to come to terms with that fact and work towards improving the 'Linux Inside' brand image.

Yes, it seems clear we have a branding image issue here which we at Linux Advocates hope to elevate and improve with time and your help.


-- Dietrich

Related articles

• GNU and Linux: It's Not Just About Attribution But Also Philosophy
• The Linux Desktop User Experience
• What Is Our Goal Here?
• The Linux Desktop Mess
• Sorting Out the Linux Desktop Mess

Read More

Internet Time: Don't Blink

by Dietrich Schmitz

It's just another day at Linux Advocates.  The pace of news is per usual frenetic. 

One constant that is ever-present on the Internet: Change

In a story on TechCrunch Google made the decision today to fork WebKit to 'Blink' to advance their projects in the name of "speed and simplicity".  The statement from Google's VP of Engineering:

This decision clearly wasn’t made lightly. Indeed, as Upson stressed when I talked to him yesterday, “management asked a lot of hard questions” about this move, but in the end, the decision was made in order to reduce the technical complexity of evolving Google’s rendering engine in the direction the team wanted to go in.

This is, needless to say, going to be another 'game changing' move.  It's rather unsettling because as most developers become used to WebKit's complexities, now yet another fork is being introduced that will yet result in it's own variation.

Whether or not other vendors adopt Blink remains to be seen and depends on exactly what Google's Engineering Team plan to do with it and why.

It seems that they are dealing with a mix of technical issues and upstream latency from other contributing sources who need to be in sync on their own development timelines.

This is always problematic and the move to a fork relieves the need to deal with upstream hindrances as they deconstruct WebKit and freely make major changes to it without interference or raising an uproar with the open source community.  Recalling also, that for their own good reasons as it turned out, Apple forked the Konqueror browser's KHTML engine to WebKit.

Will Blink be welcomed?  I suspect not at least initially, but we need to let the dust settle and find out what develops as time takes it course.  It appears that Blink will be surfacing sooner than later in Chrome and ChromeOS, offering speculation that at least initially the changes in WebKit to Blink are minimal at first.

Well, there you have it.  Living on Internet time.  Never a dull moment.

-- Dietrich

[Edit: 4/4/2013 - This Developer FAQ page will answer many questions you may have.]

Related articles

• Google Chrome/OS to use new rendering engine 'Blink' based of predecessor Webkit
• Google forks WebKit with Blink, a new web engine for Chromium and Chrome
• Google forks WebKit with new Blink rendering engine for Chrome and Opera

Read More